[stem-ebola] Ebola 2014 is Mutating as Fast as Seasonal Flu

[alex@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]

Ebola 2014 is Mutating as Fast as Seasonal Flu

The current Ebola 2014 virus is mutating at a similar rate to seasonal 
flu (Influenza A).  This means the current Ebola outbreak has a very 
high intrinsic rate of viral mutation.  The bottom line is that the 
Ebola virus is changing rapidly, and in the intermediate to long term (3 
months to 24 months), Ebola has the potential to evolve.

We cannot predict exactly what the Ebola virus will look like in 24 
months.  There is an inherent stochastic randomness to viral evolution 
which makes predictions on future viral strains difficult, if not 
impossible.  One basic tenet we can rely on is this: Viruses tend to 
maximize their infectivity (basic reproduction number) within their 
biological constraints (Nowak, 2006).

Analysis of the available research suggests that the Ebola 2014 virus is 
currently mutating at a rate 200% to 300% higher than historically 
observed (Gire, 2014).

Furthermore, the Ebola-2014 virus's mutation rate of 2.0 x 10−³ 
subs/site/year is nearly identical to Influenza A's mutation rate of 1.8 
x 10−³ subs/site/year (Jenkins, 2002).  This means Ebola 2014 is 
mutating as fast as seasonal flu.

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